Thursday, October 16, 2014

Bermuda, Hawaii facing tropical threats

Major islands in both the Atlantic and central Pacific basins are in the potential path of tropical cyclones. In the Atlantic currently is major Hurricane Gonzalo, the strongest in that basin since Hurricane Ophelia three years ago. Gonzalo is on a path parallel to the U.S. East Coast, the same as every other named storm thus far in the basin this year except Dolly, a short-lived Gulf of Mexico storm. However, unlike the other storms, Gonzalo is threatening to directly hit the island of Bermuda possibly as a category 4 storm. The last hurricane to affect Bermuda was one-time category 5 storm Igor in 2010. The island is under a hurricane warning and Gonzalo is being taken as a serious threat there.

In the Pacific is Tropical Storm Ana, so named because it formed in the ocean's central basin, as opposed to the eastern basin. Like the eastern-central crossover storms Iselle and Julio in August, Ana is eyeing the Hawaiian Islands, although at this time it is expected to bypass the Big Island and have a greater effect on the western islands. Possibly as an act of preparation, a state of emergency has been declared in the state of Hawaii.

Peak tropical cyclone activity in these regions of the world usually occur during the month of September, although two landfalling storms in different basins is still entirely possible in October. While the eastern Pacific peaked in tropical cyclone formation to an extent last month, the Atlantic was surprisingly quiet at that time, presumably because conditions in that basin have "calmed down" after three straight above-average seasons followed by an average one.

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